Title : Objective Regressive Regression as a function of infectious entities and natural disasters

Abstract:

The control of infectious entities with repercussions on human health, as in the rest of animals, is becoming more complex every day, and it is even more difficult to control disease vector organisms and their etiological agents, which is why the scientific community is increasingly committed to research related to control alternatives that are much more efficient, sustainable, economical and environmentally friendly. We have gone through different methods and control alternatives, from biological, physical, ecological, genetic manipulation, chemical, among others, but the problem of confrontation and control of zoonotic entities remains latent, both in re-emerging and emerging entities, and will continue as long as the human species exists; This is the reason why the human intellect cannot cease in this struggle, hence our incursion and linkage with other disciplines of scientific knowledge, with emphasis on geographical sciences and mathematics, and especially, mathematical modeling and its different forecasting models, in the short, medium and long term, with emphasis on the methodology of the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR). The modeling (ROR), based on a combination of Dummy variables with ARIMA modeling, where only two Dummy variables are created and the trend of the series is obtained, requires few cases to be used and also allows the use of exogenous variables that make it possible to model and forecast in the long term, depending on the exogenous variable, It has given better results than ARIMA modeling in some variables, such as HIV modeling, viral etiology/arbovirosis entities (Dengue, Zika and Leptospirosis), parasitic entities (Malaria, Fasciolosis and Angiostrongilosis) and even in the current COVID-19 pandemic, but its application has gone beyond, up to meteorological disturbances (cyclones and hurricanes) and earthquakes.

Key words: infectious entities, Objective Regressive Regression (ORR) methodology, mathematical modeling, earthquakes.

Biography:

Born in 1966 in the current province of Sancti Spíritus, Cuba. Graduated in 1989 in Biology Science. Professor and Researcher at the Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas. Currently works at the University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UCM-VC), Cuba. Vice-president of the Territorial Tribunal (Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara) for the research categories: Aspiring Researcher and Associate Researcher. President of the Territorial Tribunal for the main teaching categories (Assistant Professor and Full Professor) of the University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara. President of the Villaclareña Section of Entomoepidemiology and Related Sciences (SVECA). Vice-president of the Society of Disaster Reduction and Mitigation of Villa Clara. Member of the Society of Microbiology and Parasitology of Cuba and Cuban Society of Zoology. He has to his credit, more than 440 scientific results/publications, of which, he is the author of 310 scientific articles in specialized journals of recognized prestige and impact, both in Cuba and abroad, many of them indexed in group 1 and Web of Science (WoS) databases, as well as 24 books, among many others. Member of the Editorial Board of the scientific journals "The Biologist (Lima)", "Neotropical Helminthology (aphia)", Biotempo, Paideia XXI, "International Journal of Zoology and Animal Biology (IZAB)", "Acta Scientific Veterinary Sciences", as well as Associate Editor of the Board "Gulf Journal of Clinical Medicine and Medical Research" (GJCMMR). Reviewer/Referee for more than ten journals, both national and international. Recipient of the National Award of the Academy of Sciences of Cuba (ACC) in 2019. He has taught at the Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Pedro Kourí" (IPK), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara and the Universities of Medical Sciences of the provinces of Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus and Ciego de Avila.