Dengue fever has been a prominent public health issue in India because it propagates quickly, it is seasonal, and it recurs, which shows its powerful characteristic as a vector-borne disease. This paper is a detailed statistical data analysis of dengue incidence and mortality in four southern Indian states Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana between the period of 2005 and 2024 and thereafter provides short-term predictions (2025–2026) was collected from the National Centre for Vector Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC), Government of India using HoltWinters exponential smoothing model.

The results show that the CFR is always highest in Kerala compared to the other four states, which implies that the disease severity or healthcare response problems are relatively high. In Karnataka, the incidence of dengue is increasing over the past few years which is indicative of the escalating intensity of transmission. Conversely, Telangana continues to record the lowest death rate, which means that the management of the disease is relatively efficient. Projections of the forecasts indicate that the dengue cases will keep increasing in majority of the states except in Telangana where the death rates are likely to be relatively low. ANOVA indicates statistically significant differences in dengue related deaths between states whereas differences in case counts are not statistically significant, suggesting that there could be differences between states in the effectiveness of healthcare services, environmental vulnerability, or a reporting dynamics.

In general, the paper highlights the role of specific approaches to public health and predictive models to reduce dengue cases among susceptible groups. There is a need to strengthen preventive and response mechanisms to tackle the changing epidemiological situation with dengue in India.

Keywords: Dengue fever, statistical analysis, forecasting, case fatality rate (CFR), ANOVA, time series modeling, public health, India.