Title : Transmission dynamics and control strategy of single strain Dengue disease
Abstract:
In this paper we have considered a single strain Dengue model with saturated incidence rate as well as saturated treatment. Three types of controls namely vaccination for susceptible humans, treatment for infected humans and mosquitoes killing effort by humans are considered here. Existence of different equilibrium points and their stability have been investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number (R_0). The system experiences different types of bifurcations such as: Transcritical bifurcation, Backward bifurcation depending on the different model parameters. To verify the validity of the proposed model, we have fitted the model with real reported data of Dengue outbreak in Singapore from 18th week, 2014 to 1st week, 2015. Performing sensitivity analysis we have identified most influential model parameters to control the disease. We have discussed estimation of actual and effective reproduction number. Pontryagin’s maximum principle has been used to find out the most effective control strategy for reducing Dengue infection. Numerically we have shown the effect of different model parameters on disease spreading. Finally, using efficiency analysis we have identified that treatment for infected humans with mosquitoes killing effort is the most effective among considered control strategies..
